Evaluating dynamics of indicators of the current investment cycle in petroleum sector of the Perm krai

Regional and branch economy

The relevance of the study is based on several factors:  no unified interpretation of the concept of investment cycle and analysis methods; having to assess the current state and forecasts for development of investment processes; specifying the directions and methods of managing investment processes in systems of different levels. The goal of this study was to explore the possibilities offered by the approach we devised for analyzing the dynamics of investment process indicators with reference to a certain phase of the economic cycle, with the example of the petroleum industry in the Perm region, in order to more accurately determine the phase of the investment cycle and directions of investment policy in the industry. We have formulated approaches to developing the procedure for analyzing the investment cycle based on our interpretation of the investment cycle, its features and the system of indicators of the current investment cycle in the industry. A system of indicators(including real interest rate index, concentration ratio, distribution of investments in non-financial assets, condition of productive fixed capital assets, participation in production of high-tech products, level of main production capacity, weighted average return on assets, increased share of expenditures on staff development and intangible assets in cost structure) was used to analyze the characteristics of the investment cycle in industry. In our opinion, the selected indicators and features of their phase states can contribute to determining the current phase of the current investment cycle with reference to the phase of the economic cycle in order to predict the development of territories and industries for the long term. The article presents the results of the proposed method for analyzing investment activity with the example of the petroleum industry of the Perm region. Based on the results of analysis, we have concluded that the petroleum industry of the Perm region is at the stage of equilibrium. At the same time, the share of small enterprises is growing, companies are trying to create additional value of their product by investing in the development of new technologies. The old technological platform is becoming obsolete, giving grounds for a new generation of products to be created; in addition, new directions of investment policy regulating new high-tech products have to be devised.