Use of learning models for forming energy-saving strategies

Economic & mathematical methods and models

The article is dedicated to the major problem of improving the methodological base for evaluating the economic efficiency of energy-saving measures. The goal of the study is in developing an effective system for supporting the decision-making involved in devising strategic alternatives that are energy-saving measures different in their effects and in the resources required for achieving them, and for creating a design model of cash flows required for implementing the investment project. The suggested approach using “learning” models reduces time and labor costs for evaluating the economic efficiency of energy-saving measures. These models formalize the stable causal relationships in the economic environment emerging during the implementation of energy-saving measures. Various analytical methods have been used in the study: systematization of the influencing factors, structuring of the changes in the economical outcomes and in the components of costs at the enterprise and in the project, logical analysis of the correlation of the energy-saving effects of different nature and the economical outcomes and costs.  Some examples of energy-saving measures were analyzed in the article 6 types of “learning” models were created based on the analysis. These models reflect the changes of the above-mentioned cash flow components in the project and at the enterprise. The typology of the models corresponds to the classification of the energy-saving measures developed by the authors. Using such models allows to improve the quality of evaluation, simplify and partially formalize the creation of strategical alternatives and models of cash flows in an energy-saving project. Further research will allow to expand the opportunities of the described approach using learning models both with respect to the types of energy-saving measures and to the structuring of the components of outcomes and costs taken into account in the cash flows.