Assessing the resilience of a regional market for medical industrial products

External constraints on regional medical industries make it important to preserve their production and technological capacity and to identify its erosion when resource indicators fail to capture it. The aim of the study is to develop and test an approach to assessing the resilience of a regional market for industrial medical products based on separate measurement of the resource and technology-carrier circuits. The methodological basis combines the evolutionary interpretation of regional resilience with the provisions of sectoral strategizing; resilience is operationalised along four dimensions — resistance, recovery, re-orientation and renewal. The empirical base was formed from federal statistical observation forms No. 1-tekhnologiya and No. 2-nauka for 2017−2025 by economic activity types 26.6 and 32.5, and from Voronezhstat materials; the annual flow of research and development expenditure was converted to constant 2018 prices. It is established that the resilience of the regional medical industrial complex splits into two diverging characteristics. After declining to 58.0−73.5% of the 2019 level, the resource circuit reached 206.0−315.2% by 2025, whereas the technology-carrier circuit contracted to 68.2% under full coverage and to 50.0% for the core, with the minimum falling in the final year of observation. The number of developer organisations fell from 10 to 2 while the number of developed technologies grew, indicating concentration of development. The share of applied technologies acquired abroad was 41.6%, and of in-house development 7.9%. The scientific novelty lies in identifying a transmission gap between the resource and technology- carrier circuits and in demonstrating that assessing sectoral resilience by resource indicators alone systematically overstates it. The results are applicable in designing sectoral monitoring systems at the regional level. Monitoring the regional medical-industrial complex — based on costs and personnel — identifies areas of prosperity even as the production base contracts. Dividing the indicators into two categories and tracking the divergence between them makes this contraction visible within the management cycle, rather than only after competencies have been lost. The results obtained are limited to a single region, two types of economic activity, and a seven-year observation period, during which some data series are incomplete. This also determines the directions for further research.