Comprehensive risk assessment model for an industrial park project
The search for optimal solutions to improve effective implementation of one of the forms of development of industrial complexes, industrial parks, requires an accurate definition of the list of its (park) key elements and investment subjects for its creation. One of the most important areas for solving this problem is the analysis of the general structure of the perimeter of the business landscape of the project for the creation and operation of an industrial park. It is the elements of the business landscape, including processes and objects, that give rise to the risks of such projects, which significantly reduce their economic efficiency for participants. The results of this analysis make it possible to identify risks and their metrics that reduce the expected economic effects from the project for the participants in the project to create an industrial park. The analysis of the theoretical substantiation of the existing criteria for assessing and making a decision on the creation of industrial parks, the structure and financing sources for the engineering and transport infrastructure revealed significant differences in the positions of scientists and the expert community in relation to both models and criteria for an integrated assessment of the effectiveness of projects implemented by the state and private investors. Differences in the structure of funding sources, including the costs and revenues of budgets of various levels generated by these projects, do not allow correct and comparable assessment of such projects only using standard integrated performance indicators: NPV, DPBP, IRR and PI. The objective need to develop new methods for assessing the economic feasibility of implementing industrial park projects for the purpose of providing such projects with state financial support measures is confirmed by an analysis of the current state of development of the industrial parks institution in the Russian Federation. Our focus on the need for a hierarchical classification of risk types up to the second level of decomposition generated in the framework of the implementation of industrial parks projects, taking into account standardized groupings and empirical data obtained during the implementation of similar real projects, allows us to rethink the attitude to the analysis and assessment of investment risks projects. Thus, we can now use the value of the total risk of the project not as part of the mathematical model for assessing the present value of the cash flows generated by the project, but as a separate metric for the comparative assessment of the project. As part of the confirmation of this hypothesis, the rationale for the use of methodologies of qualitative and quantitative analysis (including the calculation of the probability value), as well as a comparative risk assessment established by the current GOST R, in relation to projects to create industrial parks, was justified. Another result of this work is an assessment of the low efficiency of methods that take into account the risks of an investment project in the discount rate of cash flows in relation to projects for the creation of industrial parks, and not the creation of enterprises for the industrial production of goods. As a constructive solution, a mathematical model is proposed for calculating the integral indicator for assessing the risks of a project to create an industrial park, as well as an optimization model for choosing projects and the composition of industrial park support mechanisms. The model is based on the analysis of correlation matrices of dependencies between: types of projects and types of risks generated by them, types of risks and elements of the project’s income and expenses, as well as the project participants and the structure of the project’s income and expenses.