The diagnostic model for food security assessment of the Russian Arctic

Economic & mathematical methods and models

The article is devoted to the formation of the diagnostic model for food security assessment of the Russian Federation Arctic zone (AZRF). The topicality of the research is due to the necessity of modernization of the Russian Arctic food supply system in the face of increasing external and internal threats. It is also it is due to the practical significance of timely forecasting of food shortages and prevention of crisis phenomena, both at the level of the entire Arctic region and at the level of subjects within the Russian Arctic. The existing regulatory documents and strategic development programs fail to account for the specifics of the Arctic regions; there is no methodology for food security assessment taking into account territorial characteristics, no system of target indicators and their threshold values: all of these factors prevent correct assessment of food security of the AZRF. In the aspect of this problem, the necessity of developing the diagnostic model of macroregion food security is justified, taking into account the characteristic distinctive features inherent in the Arctic territories. Based on the comparative analysis of methodological approaches for the assessment of food security, an adjustment of the evaluation indicators system is proposed within the framework of the research. It is expedient to include the following complex of criteria in the diagnostic evaluation model: 1) physical availability; 2) affordability of food; 3) sufficiency of food consumption; 4) food safety; 5) transport accessibility. The level of food security is proposed to be formed based on the usage of an integral method with a preliminary procedure for simple rationing of particular indicators, taking into account the established thresholds. The proposed diagnostic model is implemented on the example of the Russian Arctic subjects; the research period is from 2010 to 2020. As a result, the proposed diagnostic model makes it possible to determine the integral value of the level of the Russian Arctic subjects’ food security, as well as to identify threats to food security, taking into account the regional peculiarities of the functioning of the food sector. The proposed diagnostic model of food security assessment can be used by regional and municipal public authorities in the aspect of systematization of risks and threats to food security of the Russian Arctic for the subsequent formation of a set of standard management solutions to minimize negative consequences within the framework of scenario options, taking into account the peculiarities of regional and sectoral potential and Arctic specifics on the basis of coordination of actions of stakeholders (government, business, society).