Scenario approach to building predictive models for the development of regional health systems
The article is devoted to the problems of scenario modeling in relation to solving a number of problems of managing the health care system of the Perm Territory, which in recent years has attracted attention of the development of a number of promising projects to develop this industry, to expand the availability of medical services and to improve the level of medical care for the population. Any good-quality project must be directly linked not only to the future periods of its implementation, but also be scientifically justified in terms of insuring all kinds of risks and threats that will stand in the way of the successful completion of the project. Therefore, recently all kinds of projects, programs and plans are often developed using the so-called scenario approach. Several options for the development of events with this approach are offered to the appropriate circle of leaders or the power structure for the subsequent adoption of an appropriate management decision. The authors of the article consider the main provisions and principles of the scenario approach using the example of the development of the health care system of a particular subject of the federation, which makes the material proposed for consideration very relevant. The authors also define, as they see it, the main result of improving the industry in the form of a target and a national goal: the expected (future) life expectancy of the population of the study area. This socio-economic indicator, which has all the signs of fatefulness, is considered by the authors to be a priority analytical indicator of the level and quality of an effective life of a Russian. The latter determines the purpose of this study. The authors consider the construction of dynamic multivariate models of industry development options for a period of up to three years to be an efficient tool for analyzing and forecasting this indicator, which is presented in the article in the form of five simultaneous equations of multiple regressions. The results of this construction are continued by discussion, and the article ends with a list of conclusions.