Revisiting the choice of indicators of the current investment cycle in industry

The finance, taxation, investments

The relevance of the study stems from a number of reasons: lack of theoretical and methodological experience concerning the problems of interdependence between the cycles within the framework of the modern macrocycle; lack of a single interpretation of the investment cycle concept, as well as of methods for analyzing this concept; the need to assess the current state and forecast the development of investment processes; the need to specify the trends and methods of managing investment processes in systems of different levels. The paper provides a brief description of the recurrent approach to the study of modern macroeconomic processes. It also defines the role of investment processes in the modern macroeconomic cycle. The paper presents our interpretation of the investment cycle and focuses on its features. Justification of the features of the investment cycle based on the recurrent approach allowed to systematize the indicators of the current investment cycle in industry. The paper is concerned with formulating the approaches to developing a methodology for analyzing the current investment cycle. We have systematized the basic indicators of the dynamics of investment processes based on the capital structure, proposed by Perez (production and financial capital); we have also presented the phase characteristics of the investment cycle, combined into three groups: characteristics of industrial investment, characteristics of the state of financial capital and indicators reflecting the structural changes in the movement of capital and its impact on macroeconomic dynamics. For each of the selected indicators, the directions of indicator dynamics are presented for each of the four phases of the classical business cycle (recession, depression, recovery and expansion).  In order to analyze the specifics of the investment cycle in industry, we suggest using a specific system of indicators, including the real interest rate index, the concentration coefficient, the distribution of investments in non-financial assets, the state of the key assets, participation in the production of high-tech products, the level of capacity utilization, the weighted average return on assets, cost of share of expenses for personnel development and intangible assets. In our opinion, the selected indicators and the features of their phase states can help determine the current phase of the current investment cycle with reference to the phase of the economic cycle in order to forecast the development of territories and industries in the long term.