Any tax system affects the economic activity of business entities and the regulatory function of taxes allows the state to solve the main problems by using the fiscal system. With increased volatility of exogenous factors at a very high level of fiscal burden, economic agents are incapable of building long-term development strategies, which reduces their financial stability and may force companies to withdraw into the shadow economy. The existing diversity of forms and methods of deviant behavior of taxpayers complicates the diagnostics, detection and imposition of criminal or administrative responsibility on the organizers and participants of the shadow economy. However, the analysis of informal activity allows to define some templates for grouping the forms and methods of violations of social norms and rules: participants tax crimes; the branch or territorial specifics; distortion of the tax base; the means of causing the damage; the complexity of financial schemes and transaction types used for tax evasion. Using these templates in the monitoring system for analysis of deviant behavior of taxpayers, it is expedient to use game theory. The proposed economic and mathematical model implies the finding the threshold number of violations of tax legislation in each territorial industrial complex by analytical means and subsequently comparing these thresholds with the actual level of tax violations in the selected sample of taxpayers. The results of simulation in the construction industry and the wholesale and retail sector indicate that the level of tax discipline is inadequate, which means that control procedures of the tax authorities have to be optimized for these complexes. The share of small and medium-sized businesses in these sectors is particularly large, so a simple increase in the number of field tax audits to raise the level of tax compliance will be impossible. For this reason, further improvement of analytical procedures of tax control is necessary.