Features of modeling the economic security of an industrial complex

Regional and branch economy

The current economic situation is characterized by high volatility of endogenous factors and stagnation of territorial industrial complexes. This requires modernization to ensure the necessary level of economic security. Industry experiences the highest rate of production decline, while individual branches suffered from the introduction of sectoral sanctions. The generally accepted concept of the mechanism for achieving an acceptable level of economic security require using instruments of indicative analysis as a basic tool for process monitoring. Assessment of economic security in industry requires an adequate informative load due to the close relationship between indicators. From the standpoint of economic mathematical modeling, this means having to consider the following features: the transformation of state policy in support of the industrial complex and its impact on the level of economic security; the analysis of internal processes associated with the specific functioning of the subject, the object and the design subsystems of the territorial industrial complex and determining the potential trajectory of sustainable development of the national economy. It is optimal to use the modified tools of correlation and regression analysis methods in PLS-PM. The simulation results show that following factors have the maximum impact on the level of economic security: the share of imported products in the domestic market for manufacturing industries; the share of expenditure on imported raw materials and materials, expenses on acquisition of raw materials for the production and sale of products; sectoral investment. The evaluation of the effectiveness of public policy in the context of economic security can be carried out through: government spending in the framework of programs of industry support; the amount of tax credits; the level of administrative pressure. Factors of intensive type, providing the implementation of promising investment projects and forming the basis for modernization in the move from extensive use of accumulated resource potential for the introduction of advanced production facilities and modern technologies are crucial for increasing the level of economic security of the industrial complex.