Scenario modeling in the practice of industrial strategic planning

Models and Methods of Strategic Planning

The future development of the Russian economy is impossible without transforming its production and economical policy, without a focus on creating a production system and a consumption culture in the economy of technological and renewable resources. Currently this process is carried out with the active participation of the government. In particular, starting from 2014, recycling programs for end-of-life vehicles (ELV) are implemented. Available experience here cannot be called very successful: the program does not encourage its members to actively modernize the vehicles, introduce new technologies, comply with contractual obligations and so on. Indirectly this indicates the immaturity of the incentive mechanisms of the program. In this regard, we suggest using the scenario-modeling methodology to substantiate efficient and effective program measures and mechanisms. Based on the general scenario paradigm, a system of mathematical models was proposed and implemented. It is implemented based on the simulation model supported in AnyLogic environment. The processing unit contains a set of library functions that provide the planning of the scenario experiment; implementing the scenario-modeling system; generating scenarios; processing and storing the results of computational experiments; analyzing and clustering the scenarios, creating the prospect sets of control parameters; making reports and etc. The model study allows determining the ranges of acceptable values of the ELV recycling program parameters to ensure its effective functioning as well as to assess the effects of government subsidies to the ELV recycling system in general.