The article describes approaches to the predictive evaluation of innovation processes and structural transformation in the recovery sectorfor secondary metallurgical raw materials in Russia. It is concerned with the issues of establishing and developing the national system of resource recycling from metallurgical wastes. It determines the specific features and identifies the challenges of economic agents dealing with scrap metal recovery. Besides, the article outlines the scenario model of the industry’s development, presents the characteristics of the space scenario and the predictive estimate of medium-term dynamics of the technological base and economic activities of metal recycling companies. In conclusion, the article focuses on the strategic objectives for the development of the national recycling system of the secondary metallurgical resources.