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<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD JATS (Z39.96) Journal Publishing DTD v1.3 20210610//EN" "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/publishing/1.3/JATS-journalpublishing1-3.dtd">
<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xml:lang="en">
  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title>π-Economy</journal-title>
        <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
          <trans-title>π-Economy</trans-title>
        </trans-title-group>
      </journal-title-group>
      <issn pub-type="epub">2782-6015</issn>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">10</article-id>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.18721/JE.13210</article-id>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Study on the impact of e-commerce development on inflation in the euro area</article-title>
        <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
          <trans-title>Исследование влияния развития электронной торговли на инфляцию в зоне евро</trans-title>
        </trans-title-group>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Kulakov</surname>
            <given-names>Mikhail</given-names>
          </name>
          <email>mkulakov39@yandex.ru</email>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Vinogradov</surname>
            <given-names>Artem</given-names>
          </name>
          <email>artem.a.vinogradov@gmail.com</email>
        </contrib>
      </contrib-group>
      <pub-date publication-format="electronic" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2020-04-30">
        <day>30</day>
        <month>04</month>
        <year>2020</year>
      </pub-date>
      <volume>13</volume>
      <issue>2</issue>
      <fpage>110</fpage>
      <lpage>119</lpage>
      <abstract xml:lang="en">
        <p>This article explores the impact of e-commerce development on inflation in the euro area. Low inflation in the euro area has been a concern for policymakers since the global economic crisis. Economic growth and inflation have recovered in many countries, but in the euro area, growth has remained sluggish and inflation low. As a result, to reach its inflation target the European Central Bank cut its policy rate to zero and implemented several non-standard monetary measures. The possible cause of the disinflation could be digitalization and e-commerce development. With the development of digital technology and the internet, company competition may increase, and costs will decrease. The main hypothesis of the study is that the developing e-commerce sector may channel into lower
consumer inflation. The e-commerce development was measured by two indicators, namely a share of online purchases by individuals and a share of purchases by enterprises via a computer network. To evaluate the impact of e-commerce, a panel database on 19 euro area countries was compiled. Initially, a cross country analysis shows no negative relationship between e-commerce development measures and inflation. However, a basic linear panel model with fixed effects and a panel vector autoregression showed negative impact of e-commerce development and digitalization on inflation. As a result of a panel analysis, the hypothesis of the disinflationary impact of e-commerce was generally confirmed. However, given a weak relationship between e-commerce development and inflation in a basic crosscountry analysis, the negative relationship was likely attributable to the ongoing upward e-commerce development trend. The trend has a natural cap of 100%, meaning that this disinflationary factor will eventually fade away. For many countries, in 2019, the share of online purchases by the population was below 50%. Should the trend stop, inflation in the euro area may accelerate. Among other factors hindering the e-commerce development and digitalization are tighter information technology regulation and worsening international trade relations.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group xml:lang="en">
        <kwd>e-commerce</kwd>
        <kwd>digitalization</kwd>
        <kwd>inflation</kwd>
        <kwd>eurozone</kwd>
        <kwd>panel linear model</kwd>
        <kwd>PVAR</kwd>
        <kwd>monetary policy</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
</article>
