Balanced development of the macroregion’s manufacturing industry under new industrialization (a case study of the Volga Federal District)

In the context of geopolitical challenges and the need for Russia's technological sovereignty, the key imperative is new industrialization, which involves a qualitative transition to digital and intellectual production. However, the policy of concentrating resources in historically established industrial centers deepens interregional disparities. This study aims to address the contradiction between the effectiveness of concentration and the need for balanced development, using the Volga Federal District (VFD) as a case study. The goal is to develop and test a concept for the balanced development of the manufacturing industry based on the transition from a «catch-up» development model to a strategy of differentiated integration of regions with different potential into unified production and cooperation chains. The methodology includes three stages. At the first stage, a comprehensive assessment of the potential for new industrialization was conducted based on four blocks (industrial, human resources, investment, and innovation) using data from Rosstat for 2023. The integral index allowed for the identification of leading regions, regions with average potential, and regions with low potential. At the second stage, a «potential-dynamics» matrix was constructed, classifying regions into four groups (Leaders, Catch-up Development Regions, Stable Regions, and Problem Regions) and identifying strategic priorities. At the third stage, functional models of interregional value creation chains were designed for the key clusters of the VFD: the automotive industry, aircraft manufacturing, petrochemicals, and agro-industry. The results revealed pronounced polarization: the two leading regions account for 32% of the gross regional product (GRP) of manufacturing industry and 46% of investments, while labor productivity is twice the average. At the same time, a number of regions with low absolute potential demonstrate high growth rates, making them potential growth points within cooperation networks. The key conclusion is the need to transition from a policy of fiscal equalization to a strategy of specialized integration of lagging regions as component suppliers into the clusters of leading regions. The practical significance lies in the creation of diagnostic tools and functional cooperation schemes to transform spatial heterogeneity into a growth factor for the technological sovereignty of the macroregion.