Innovative approach to assessing the multiplier effect of investments

Research objective is to develop a methodological approach for assessing the multiplicative impact on the economic efficiency of investment processes, considering regional factors. Research methodology includes systems approach, neoclassical and evolutionary theories of investment, the concept of multipliers, methods of econometric modeling. These methods allow for a deeper understanding of the impact of innovations on the economic efficiency of investment processes at the macro and meso-levels and their interrelationships. This article examines the multiplicative impact of investments on economic efficiency in Russia, including in the Republic of Crimea in 2020−2024. A comparative analysis of the dynamics of investments in fixed assets and economic indicators of gross national income for Russia and gross regional product for the Republic of Crimea is carried out. The main focus is on calculating the multiplicative impact of investments. The results of the analysis show that investments in Crimea provide higher multiplicative return, which is associated with state support and infrastructure projects, while in Russia, investment efficiency is decreasing due to external shocks and institutional barriers, as well as significant challenges such as sanctions, inflation and geopolitical risks. The developed innovative approach to assessing the multiplicative impact of investments made it possible to identify regional imbalances in the investment processes efficiency. The use of VAR modeling for 2025−2027 confirmed the stability of forecast trends, despite external risks. To assess the multiplicative impact of investments in Russia and the Republic of Crimea, a combination of a VAR model with the Random Forest algorithm was used, in which the current values of these series depend on their past values, and regression analysis of panel data for 2020−2024. Implications for business and government involve using a variety of multiplication methods, including the presented one, which recommends taking into account geopolitical factors and inflationary risks in long-term planning. Specific recommendations include: for Russia: reducing bureaucratic barriers, stimulating private investment, diversifying the economy; for the region of Republic of Crimea: increasing investment with an emphasis on infrastructure and import-substitution projects. The results of the study show that optimizing investment policy, taking into account the identified patterns, can accelerate economic growth at both the federal and regional levels. The originality of the research and the author’s contribution: 1. Characteristics of modern methods for assessing multipliers. 2. An innovative model integrating national and regional approaches. The practical significance of the study lies in the potential application of its results to increase the validity of investment decisions at both the meso- and macroeconomic levels. The results of the work can be used by government bodies, corporations and investors to optimize development strategies and maximize the socio-economic impact of investments.