Critical problems of complex modeling of socio-economic systems for forecasting purposes

As the organizational, economic, institutional, technical and other conditions of human life become more complex, and as a consequence of the increasing complexity of management objects and problems requiring solutions, the theory, methodology and tools of modeling (including mathematical) are developing. However, until now, in their development, insufficient attention has been paid to the issues of creating an integrated methodological basis for constructing a set of models that, taken together, allow achieving the effect of a «white (transparent) box» model of the studied cyber-socio-economic systems, understanding the interrelations of their structure, properties, processes, results and conditions of life, and investigating the long-term and indirect consequences of organizational and managerial decisions. The development of such a methodological basis, taking into account the cognitive and psychological characteristics of individuals, is the goal of the research being conducted. The stages of system modeling, systematizes the problems encountered during these stages, and reflects their impact on modeling results are presented in this article. It also proposes a methodological framework for constructing and evaluating a set of cyber-socio-economic system models. The results are based on general systems theory and epistemology, modeling methodology, and systems principles of thinking, organization, and management. The novelty of the proposals lies in the implementation of the principle of model integration based on a three-axis framework for the system description of the control object and in the systematization of critical modeling problems in the context of the steps of the basic methodology of systems research. This allows to give researchers to equip themselves with a methodological framework for the systemic description of controlled socio-economic systems through a set of models and to draw attention to critical issues that may negatively affect the adequacy, effectiveness, expediency, consistency and usefulness of the models of the set-complex. The implementation of the proposed approach to integrated modeling will improve the quality of substantiation of organizational and management decisions. The development of detailed methodological recommendations, taking into account the specifics of various socio-economic systems (depending on belonging to a certain level of the economy, on the types and scale of activities and other characteristics), should be a continuation of research in this direction.