Econometric modeling of digital development of the economy and social sphere of Russian regions

The problem of the research lies in the deficiency of statistical apparatus and mathematical models for relevant assessment of digital development of regions, necessary for achieving the national goal of “digital transformation”. This problem is especially pronounced in terms of digitalization of the social sphere, since most statistical indicators reflect digitalization of the economy. The first hypothesis of the study is that digitalization of the economy and social sphere of the region largely depends on the socio-economic and innovative development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. According to the second hypothesis, key factors of digital development of the economy and social sphere of the region can be identified using econometric analysis and formation of mathematical models on its basis. Econometric analysis also allows to form a typology of regions in accordance with the dynamics of digital development indicators, identify the main digital profiles of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation; determine trends in the development of digitalization in Russian regions, which have been insufficiently studied so far. The objective of the study is to conduct an econometric analysis of publicly available statistical data on the digital development of the economy and social sphere of the regions in order to: a) mathematically identify the key indicators of the digital development of the social sphere (the least studied area of regional development in terms of the introduction of digital technologies); b) determine the integral indicators of the comprehensive digital development of the region (including the economy and social sphere); c) identify the most significant factors-determinants of the digital development of the economy and social sphere; d) conduct a typology of regions to form a list of the most common digital profiles of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The research methods are represented by factor, correlation, regression, cluster types of analysis. Factor analysis was used to reduce the dimensionality of indicators, identify correlated factors, and form key integral indicators of digital development of the social sphere, as well as the economy and the social sphere in the relationship of these indicators. Separately, through factor analysis, the key components of the socio-economic and innovative development of the region were identified in order to subsequently form regression models of their impact on the digital development of the territories. Cluster analysis made it possible to identify the digital profiles of the regions. The significance level of the models was verified by technical methods in SPSS Statistic. The results of the study can be used in the formation of regional policies for the digitalization of the economy and social sphere, taking into account the level of socio-economic and innovative development of the region.