Features of applying modified model of logistic dynamics for an industrial enterprise implementing investment projects

Economic & mathematical methods and models

The dynamic changes in the economic environment of the 2010s – early 2020s create a demand for revising the previously adopted priorities for managing industrial enterprises, identifying new opportunities for their functioning and development. Global changes in business conditions signal the need for consistent adjustments in the production activities of Russian enterprises, in particular industrial ones, shift their goal-setting from optimizing the results of current activities to finding and forming long-term strategies. The purpose of the study is to prove the effectiveness of the modified model of logistic dynamics when calculating key indicators for the implementation of an investment project of an industrial enterprise. The article proves the effectiveness of the modified model of logistic dynamics as a tool for investment planning of an industrial enterprise. An algorithm for calculating the model of logistic dynamics is proposed. The key indicators of the model are the values of the effective investment interval, the peak values of the profitability and unprofitableness of the investment project, and the coefficients of scale, displacement and shape that form the model. The changing business environment of industrial enterprises presupposes a constant search for effective tools to ensure sustainable development: a balanced set of measures in which the use of resources and investments are aimed at achieving strategic goals. The result of the research is the constructed model of the investment activity of PJSC “Phosagro” under the “Strategy 2020” program. A study of investment planning tools for industrial enterprises shows that, in the current economic realities, it is important to orient the top management towards environmentally friendly, sustainable economic growth. There is an acute problem of taking into account the risk parameter in the modified model of logistic dynamics, which is the subject of future research. The key result of investment planning using the author’s model is, first of all, a greater awareness of the decision-maker about the real scenario for the implementation of an investment project at their enterprise. On the practical example of the investment program of PJSC “Phosagro”, it was possible to prove the effectiveness of the modified model of logistic dynamics. The high demand for effective forecasting tools for the rational implementation of sustainable development projects of both private and public organizations determined the relevance of the study.