Formalization of the problem of creation of a regional agent-oriented forest management model

Economic & mathematical methods and models

The forest resource is an important economic source of advantages for the northwestern regions of Russia. Trees and products obtained during their processing are used in many spheres of human life: furniture, household items and interiors, construction, chemistry, etc. Forests as such are also significant ecosystems that are a necessary element in the formation of safe living conditions for humans (processing carbon dioxide into oxygen), as well as flora and fauna that live in it. Irrational deforestation can lead not only to failures in the economic systems of enterprises, but also have a catastrophic effect on the health of people who live in these territories. In this regard, the purpose of this article is to formalize the system of interaction between objects of the forestry industry, which in turn will make it possible to create an effective and rational model of logging at the level of a separate territorial entity. The relationships developed by the authors can be incorporated into the systems of simulation modeling based on one of the actively developing approaches: the agent-based modeling. To solve the above problem, such general scientific methods were used as generalization, systematization, induction-deductive logical conclusions, analysis, synthesis, etc. To determine the specific numerical characteristics of the simulated objects, their parameters and variables, the authors used methods and tools of mathematical statistics tested on the data of regional timber industry statistics of the Vologda region. The results obtained will be useful for the formation of computer models of forest management at the regional level, which, in turn, will allow calculating the optimal number of participants for a given national economic direction, and also show the dynamics of the forest area recovery after logging. The work done may be of interest to the administrative and managerial structures involved in the regulation of laws and rights in the forestry sector; commercial enterprises trying to rationalize their activities, while extracting the maximum economic return from it and causing minimal damage to the ecological environment; as well as subject specialists working in the direction of modeling effective simulation systems.