Risk assessment of innovative project based on the synthesis of fuzzy set methods and hierarchy analysis

Economic & mathematical methods and models

The large-scale business restructuring that is taking place everywhere in modern conditions leads to the fact that the solution of many problems of companies, regardless of their size and areas of activity, takes place in the conditions of complete or partial lack of information. In such circumstances, combined methods should be used to assess the factors of the investment object, the innovative component of which is predisposed to riskiness. The absence or incompleteness of information implies a non-linear nature, which implies the use of mathematical tools to assess the degree of impact of risks of an innovative project. In this paper, the idea of synthesis of fuzzy set methods and the method of hierarchies by T. Saati is proposed, the application of which is carried out directly under specified conditions with previously unknown data and lack of information and is expressed in the construction of matrices of paired judgments based on expert assessments. As a result of ranking the risks of an innovative project to modernize the production process of an industrial enterprise, it was determined and justified that the most "important" risks that affect the progress of the project include production, market and financial risks. This means that these risks in similar circumstances should be given priority when quantifying cash flows. In the course of the study, it was also decided to determine the dependence and degree of influence of external and internal risks of innovative projects on the final choice of investment object. As an example, three alternative investments in the modernization of the production process of an industrial enterprise were selected for consideration. Methods of economic and mathematical modeling allowed us to assess the elasticity of investment priorities based on changes in project risks. The scientific novelty of the research consists in the development of qualitative methods of expert risk assessment of innovative and investment projects, through the synthesis of the methods of T. Saati and L. Zade using sensitivity analysis, which is essential for assessing and ranking the impact of risks. The synthesis of methods for assessing the risks of an innovative project described in this paper has a commonality and can be used in analyzing the sensitivity of project risks both at an industrial enterprise, during its restructuring and modernization, and in other innovative projects in related areas of the economy.