Economic and mathematical modeling of food provision in regions of Russia

Conducting socio-economic analysis of food markets at the regional economic level involves assessing the level of food provision and self-sufficiency of the main types of agricultural and food products. The goal of the study is to develop a methodology and a formalized model of economic and statistical assessment of food provision and self-sufficiency of the regions. Groups of self-sufficiency indicators, calculated in cost or natural units of measurement, can be used for assessing the level of food self-sufficiency in the regions. A complex indicator is proposed: the index of self-sufficiency in food products (IFSS), taking into account the achieved level of self-sufficiency in various types of food products at the regional level. The threshold values of the indicator are established, allowing to classify the levels of food provision. An integral indicator, the index of food provision (IFP), which takes into account groups of indicators in the field of production, distribution and consumption of food products, was developed as a tool for methodological analysis. In order to analyze the differentiation of regions in food provision, an original methodological toolkit is proposed: a matrix of food provision, which allows ranking regions by level of food supply. The proposed methodology and assessment model have been tested using the example of the regions of the Southern Federal District (SFD). Based on economic and statistical analysis of indicators of food self-sufficiency, we have found that the index of food self-sufficiency in 2017 corresponded to the optimal level, and the indicators for Volgograd, Astrakhan and Rostov regions, the Republic of Kalmykia were also at the optimal level. The proposed method of economic and statistical analysis of food provision can be used when conducting socio-economic classification of regions according to the criteria of food provision in regional markets.