Analysis of foreign markets of innovative products by theory of fuzzy sets and neural networks

Economic & mathematical methods and models

The article is dedicated to the problem of launching an innovative product in the foreign market. The article considers X-ray cargo inspection systems made in Russia as an innovative product. An X-ray cargo inspection system is an indispensable tool for customs officials and national security authorities. It allows to inspect loaded vehicles and containers to identify possible contraband investments, weapons, explosives, drugs, etc. For analysis of foreign markets and forecasting data on placing X-ray cargo inspection systems, we have used the neural networks method and the fuzzy sets method with checking the prediction error by the ARIMA method. The advantage of the ARIMA method is that it allows to describe the behavior of different types of time series with different structures, including business cycles.  Besides, data on independent variable are not necessary for using the method. Models are built and predicted based on the data contained in the time structure of the original series. The analyzed global market for possible use of X-ray cargo inspection systems consisted of 243 countries, the study was conducted for 13 parameters related to quantitative assessment of potential locations of X-ray cargo inspection systems in these countries, and more than 20 economic parameters of the countries. Segmentation of countries based on fuzzy sets was carried out using the ANFIS algorithm, which generates output data with one variable based on the fuzzy inference method. As a result, differential segments of countries are formed: highly competitive, low-competitive and mixed. Each segment has its own marketing policy, including product modification for a specific market and development of a strategy for entering this market. For this purpose, we have used an extended table of socio-cultural indices, allowing to develop and adapt the product to the specific socio-cultural characteristics of the country. In conclusion, the problems of assessing the economic efficiency of the market launch of a new product for formed segments of countries and analysis of  stability of solutions are considered.