Comparative analysis of competing innovative technologies of land vehicles with respect to environmental and economic indicators

Currently, academic and specialized analytical literature is actively discussing the problem of choosing alternative models for the developing modern land transport systems that would satisfy both the growing environmental requirements and the commercial feasibility criteria. The goal of this paper is to perform a comparative analysis of the best-developed competing technologies of road transport, such as electric vehicles, cars operating on compressed natural gas, and cars using pure biodiesel as fuel, both by economic (full cost of ownership and operation) and environmental criteria (emissions of pollutants into the atmosphere in the CO₂ equivalent). The paper suggests an approach to forecasting the change in the complex index of environmental and economic efficiency in dynamics for each pair of compared alternatives. The cost parameters of each competing technology are calculated with reference to the US fuel market as one of the most diversified in the world. The simulation showed that the most preferable alternative to the traditional gasoline car based on the integrated indicator of environmental and economic efficiency is an electric vehicle. The second most preferable alternative to a gasoline car is a car running on pure biodiesel. A car with natural gas as an alternative to the traditional gasoline version becomes more preferable from about the fourth year of operation. The results of the work can be used in the process of developing various state policies to stimulate the development of a particular type of vehicle, including the calculation of the required tax incentives or disincentives. The peculiarity of the study is the calculation of pollutant emissions at all stages of the life cycle «from well to wheel», including all emissions to the atmosphere that were produced in upstream activities. Taking into account these negative environmental effects is especially important when car fuel is produced in the same territory (within the same country or region) where it is consumed.