Forecasting of the rouble exchange rate as a function of the oil prices, using regression analysis

Economic & mathematical methods and models

During the last two centuries oil has been the most important strategic product and a widely used energy source all over the world as well as in Russia. Nowadays there are numerous theories, opinions, studies on how the rouble exchange rate changes if oil prices decrease or increase. The problem is that with all this variety of facts and opinions it is still hard to give an unambiguous answer to the stated question. Moreover, due to the significant changes on the oil market over the last couple of years, this issue is getting more interesting and now it embraces many current problems.  To answer the question stated above, we decided to analyze the dynamic changes in oil prices and rouble exchange rates and derive a function describing this correlation using regression analysis.  Based on the statistical data for the previous years, the linear function describing the correlation between the rouble exchange rate and oil prices was derived, and the correlation and determination coefficients were calculated. Moreover, based on that function, we conducted a short-term rouble exchange rate forecast, for which we used the oil prices forecast by the Ministry of Economic Development. The results are compatible with the real-life data as well as with the forecasts conducted by well-established research agencies and provide the possibility of further research.