Dynamics of economic growth in Ireland in 1980–2014

Theoretical bases of economics and management

This paper is aimed at modelling a GDP growth rate in Ireland in order to separate the periods of particularly intense growth which are particularly important from the perspective of economic miracle definition. We applied a threshold error correction approach to cover several perspectives of the growth dynamics using different thresholds. A threshold cointegration approach allows to identify a long-run equilibrium within the context of different regimes, which provides a way of identification of asymmetric adjustment in both: short and long horizons. We extended the procedure of threshold identification by using individual economic variables as threshold variables and we further used a model with statistically significant parameters as a basis of testing. Enders and Siklos (2001) introduced the methodology to measure the long-run equilibrium in different ways, i.e., as SETAR and Momentum TAR. In general, GDP growth rate observed in 1980–2014 is the subject of analysis but we validate the results using a longer sample starting from 1973. We find that structural changes are most often identified in the period of recession of 2008–2009. Best models are obtained with the following thresholds: net income from the EU and GDP growth rate. This stresses the important role of investment and the source of its funds.