Methodological approach to evaluating the effectiveness of traffic along the Northern sea route

Regional and branch economy

The paper presents the analysis of the indicators of the state’s strategic planning documents in the field of the Arctic transport system and rates for the services of icebreakers for transport by the Northeast Passage. The components forming the sea transport costs have also been considered. We have revealed the mismatch between the feasibility of marine facilities and the state strategic objectives. Examining the scheme of the benefits from the transport component and the documents of state strategic planning allowed to propose and analyze a technical efficiency index of the transport via the Northeast Passage, and construct an objective function of the optimization problem. It is shown that the variables of the objective function and the constraints of the optimization problem are the parameters characterizing the quality of shipbuilding products. We have proved the importance of program planning in the decision management of strategic state tasks in the Arctic, and of coordinating the national strategic objectives and specific problems of shipbuilding. We have proposed the limits of economic feasibility for adopting a multicriteria management decision on creating shipbuilding objects and the infrastructure of the Northeast Passage. We have estimated the influence of the increment of the target parameter on the change of the specific cost increment. It is shown that a significant breakthrough in the development of traffic along the Northeast Passage is needed before 2020 for solving state tasks, which can only be achieved by simultaneously increasing the turnover and reducing the cost of transportation. We have concluded that it is extremely important to reach a compromise in making technical and economic decisions on the basis of multivariate analysis which has a subjective component in the form of expert estimates of the weight coefficients and is not supported by a necessary amount of reliable baseline data.