Application of phase analysis in forecasting the housing construction volume

Economic & mathematical methods and models

The author of the paper analyses the dynamics of the housing affordability index fr om 1997 till 2010 in the Russian Federation. The index curve is built. The author reveals the attractor of this index wh ere the system was in 2000–2010. Three alternative forecasts (low, medium, high) are developed basing on the housing capacity level in Russia. Values of housing stock volumes for low and high alternative forecasts are calculated on the basis of the attractors revealed in the course of the phase analysis.